2040 United States presidential election



The 2040 United States presidential election was the 64th quadrennial United States presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 6, 2040. The Democratic ticket of the former Secretary of State and Governor of Georgia Stacey Abrams and Senator from New York Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated the incumbent President Gary Braun and incumbent Vice President Will Ainsworth. This is widely seen as a realigning election by historians, and the landslide victory signaled the end of a roughly 30-40 year period of intensely polarized and close elections in the early 21st century.

Abrams was the first Democrat to win Kansas since 1964, the first to win South Carolina since 1976, the first to win Tennessee and Missouri since 1996, the first to win Indiana since 2008, and the first to win Maine's 2nd congressional district since 2012. She was also the first candidate ever in a presidential election to get more than 100 million votes.

Background
For the first 1-2 years of President Braun's term, he was fairly popular with the American public. He was fairly moderate on policy issues and had a very down-to-earth persona that was resonant to a lot of Americans. Political analysts in the first half of his presidency said he had a very strong shot at becoming the first Republican to win the popular vote in 36 years. However, in mid-2038, he became embroiled in a scandal involving accepting bribes from pharmaceutical companies as Governor of Illinois. The tides quickly turned against him, and the Republicans were decimated in the 2038 midterms.

Abrams emerged as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, due to her economically populist platform and popular agenda; this contrasted significantly with her earlier political career, when she was seen as a somewhat progressive Democrat but was still generally seen as a party insider. She clinched the nomination in early April, and nominated Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as her running mate in July.

In the first debate, Abrams famously accused Braun of being "a wolf in sheep's clothing," referring to his down-to-earth persona contrasting with his shady business dealings. Following this election, the Republican Party began to go much harder on economically populist issues to win back some of the "Abrams Republicans" who flipped several very Republican states.

Close states
Margin of victory less than 1% (18 electoral votes):
 * 1) South Carolina, 0.15%
 * 2) Missouri, 0.92%

Margin of victory less than 5% (18 electoral votes):
 * 1) Tennessee, 1.22%
 * 2) Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 1.89%
 * 3) Indiana, 2.43%
 * 4) Mississippi, 4.58%

Margin of victory between 5% and 10% (49 electoral votes):
 * 1) Kansas, 5.60%
 * 2) Louisiana, 6.23%
 * 3) Montana, 7.11%
 * 4) Iowa, 8.04%
 * 5) Maine's 2nd congressional district, 9.24%
 * 6) Alabama, 9.39%
 * 7) Ohio, 9.53%

Tipping point:
 * 1) Pennsylvania, 16.28%