2052 United States presidential election



The 2052 United States presidential election was the 67th quadrennial United States presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 2052. Republican Governor of Oregon Abdul O'Shea and his running mate U.S. Representative from New Jersey's 2nd congressional district Dolores Andres defeated incumbent president Laura Les and incumbent Vice President Marco Sosa. The popular vote margin shifted from a 5.32% Democratic victory four years earlier to a 8.39% Republican victory, a 13.71% shift. O'Shea was the first Republican to utilize environmentalism and climate change issues as a major part of his campaign, which, despite his conservative positions on most economic and social issues, enabled him to make massive in-roads in solidly Democratic states which had been significantly affected by sea level rise, wildfires and other natural disaster issues that climate change was exacerbating.

O'Shea was the first Republican to win the presidency since 2036, the first to win the popular vote nationwide since 2004, the first to win Colorado since that same year, the first to win the states of Washington or Oregon since 1984, the first ever to win Puerto Rico, and the first to win Minnesota since 1972, breaking the longest state Democratic streak in the country at the time. He also came within 5% of winning Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, and New Mexico, all states targeted on his "hit list."

Close states
Margin of victory less than 1% (12 electoral votes):
 * 1) Washington, 0.27% (RCV)

Margin of victory between 1% and 5% (47 electoral votes):
 * 1) New Mexico, 1.01%
 * 2) Connecticut, 1.31% (RCV)
 * 3) Delaware, 1.50%
 * 4) Oregon, 3.42% (RCV)
 * 5) New Jersey, 4.26%
 * 6) Colorado, 4.53%
 * 7) Rhode Island, 4.59%

Margin of victory between 5% and 10% (63 electoral votes):
 * 1) Maine's 1st congressional district, 5.75% (RCV results for district vote)
 * 2) Maine, 5.77% (RCV results for overall statewide vote)
 * 3) Minnesota, 6.43%
 * 4) Virginia, 7.50%
 * 5) Illinois, 7.50%
 * 6) Georgia, 7.86%
 * 7) New Hampshire, 8.94%

Tipping-point state (46 electoral votes):
 * 1) Texas, 12.47%