2028 United States presidential election



The 2028 United States presidential election was the 61st quadrennial United States presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The Democratic Party ticket of former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro and U.S. Senator from Ohio Jamael Tito Brown defeated the incumbent Republican ticket of President Nikki Haley and Vice President Bill Huizenga.

Julián Castro was inaugurated as the 49th President of the United States on January 20, 2029, and Jamael Tito Brown was inaugurated as the 52nd Vice President of the United States on the same day.

Castro, a native of Texas, became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since 1976, when President Jimmy Carter won it. This was also the widest margin of victory for any presidential candidate (10.0%) since 1984.

Background
President Nikki Haley defeated incumbent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, despite the fact that she lost the popular vote. Despite this, her approval rating started off below 50% and stayed at that level until early 2026, when the 2026-28 recession began. Haley became extremely unpopular, and most analysts expected her to lose by a significant margin, both in the popular and electoral votes.

Julián Castro won the Democratic primary, primarily against progressive House member from Minnesota Ilhan Omar and moderate-conservative Senator from Arizona Kyrsten Sinema. He ran with a particular emphasis on social issues, especially around LGBTQ+ discrimination, housing and police, but ran more moderately than Omar on economic issues; despite this, he still advocated for several progressive economic positions such as a universal basic income and rent control. He selected Jamael Tito Brown, a member of the U.S. Senate from Ohio first elected in 2026, who formerly served as the mayor of Youngstown, as his running mate.

Castro beat Haley in the general election by a roughly 10% margin, and flipped the states of Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from 2024.

Close states
Margin of victory less than 1% (6 electoral votes):
 * 1) Iowa, 0.66%

Margin of victory less than 5% (109 electoral votes):
 * 1) Maine's 2nd congressional district, 1.87%
 * 2) Ohio, 2.03%
 * 3) Texas, 2.38%
 * 4) Florida, 2.70%
 * 5) Georgia, 4.43%
 * 6) Alaska, 4.64%

Margin of victory between 5% and 10% (95 electoral votes):
 * 1) North Carolina, 5.22%
 * 2) Wisconsin, 5.97%
 * 3) Arizona, 6.84% (Tipping-point state)
 * 4) Nevada, 7.07%
 * 5) Pennsylvania, 7.42%
 * 6) Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 8.99%
 * 7) Kansas, 9.30%
 * 8) Michigan, 9.55%
 * 9) Missouri, 9.81%